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Platinum Quarterly is commissioned by the World Platinum Investment Council and based upon independent research and analysis conducted by SFA (Oxford). It is our intention to publish similar commentary every quarter ensuring greater transparency of the global platinum market and the delivery of regular data to investors. The next Platinum Quarterly will be published on 6th March 2019.

This seventeenth edition of the Platinum Quarterly, published on 28th November 2018, includes Q3 2018 analysis of platinum supply and demand fundamentals. It also gives a view of the global above ground stocks of platinum and an outlook for market fundamentals for both 2018 and 2019.

The full report is available here:

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Overview of key data presented in the latest Platinum Quarterly:

This report incorporates analysis of platinum supply and demand during the third quarter and full years 2018 and 2019.

Today’s report predicts that mining supply in 2018 will fall by 1% from 2017. Weakness primarily in Russia will offset the small 15koz production increase in South Africa, driven by a decrease in operational disruptions from last year. The update on 2018’s platinum supply and demand forecast raises the surplus from 295koz to 505koz, primarily on weaker jewellery demand.

Global demand for platinum is expected to fall by 4% in 2018 year-on-year, however with a number of positive indicators identified. Industrial demand is up 8%, driven by an 85% year-on-year increase in demand from petroleum, and a 19% increase in demand from glass. The expected rebound from petroleum comes after a weak 2017, on the back of refinery capacity shutdowns in Japan that have now passed. The glass demand increase is due to new plants coming online this year in China and RoW.

Double digit growth in Indian jewellery partially offsets reduced consumer spending and competition from low carat gold jewellery in China, leaving jewellery demand down by an expected 2% for 2018.

The 2019 forecast shows a market surplus of 455 koz, 10% lower than the surplus in 2018 due to a 1.6% increase in supply and a 2.4% increase in demand. 2019 demand growth will be driven mainly by chemical and petroleum demand reflecting economic growth, and a doubling in investment demand as a rebound in ETFs adds to robust bar and coin demand.

Challenges remain in the automotive sector as European diesel appetite continues to decline on negative consumer sentiment, driven by uncertainty regarding diesel car restrictions in some European cities. Automotive demand is assumed to remain on its downward trajectory but at a slower rate.

The automotive platinum demand forecast for 2019 assumes no significant substitution by platinum for palladium in gasoline auto-catalysts, despite palladium’s price premium exceeding $300/oz. Economic and supply concerns argue strongly for automakers to consider a partial switch from palladium to platinum. Though technological development and certification may pose switching costs, these are probably more than overcome by the current palladium price premium over platinum.

Recycling platinum supply growth will remain at 1% year-on-year in 2019, due to additional autocatalyst supply, which will offset weaker jewellery recycling.