This report incorporates analysis of platinum supply and demand during the second quarter and full year 2018.
Today’s report predicts a further tightening of global platinum supply prompted by a reduction in the level of recycling in the jewellery sector. Global platinum supply is forecast to slip by 2% year-on-year to 7,910 koz with most mining regions expected to post lower refined production in 2018 with notable declines in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Russia.
- Overall recycling supply is expected to increase this year, although the size of this uptick has today been revised downwards due to an anticipated 10% fall in jewellery recycling.
- Global demand for platinum is expected to fall by 2% in 2018 prompted by reductions in automotive, jewellery and investment demand. These declines are expected to outweigh an expected increase in demand for platinum from the industrial sector, with a 60% rebound in petroleum demand following a raft of refinery closures in 2017.
- Automotive demand for the year is forecast to fall to 3,130 koz, due to lower diesel production in Western Europe. Although, outside Europe, demand is expected to increase slightly in India and North America in 2018.
- Today’s report forecasts that investment demand will be largely flat compared to 2017 as robust demand for bars and coins, spurred by Japanese bar buying, is outweighed by a marked reduction in ETF holdings in the second quarter.
- The market is forecast to be in surplus for the year with Above Ground Stocks (the year-end estimate of the cumulative platinum holdings not associated with ETFs, metal held by exchanges or working inventories of mining producers, refiners, fabricators or end-users) expected to end the year at 2,495 koz.