The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) today announces the publication of its latest Platinum Quarterly - the first independent, freely-available, quarterly analysis of the global platinum market. This report incorporates analysis of platinum supply and demand for the fourth quarter of 2017, the full year 2017 and a forecast for 2018.
Today’s report shows that platinum supply and demand will be closely matched in 2018, returning the market to equilibrium (+25koz). Global platinum supply is forecast to be 7,815 koz in 2018, a decline of 2% from 2017, despite an anticipated increase in recycling of 60 koz to 1,965 koz. Total mining supply for 2018 is expected to decline by 4% to 5,850 koz, mostly owing to reduced output from South Africa following some mine closures in 2017 and lower production in Russia.
Global demand is projected to grow marginally in 2018 to 7,790 koz, as a recovery in industrial demand and an increase in jewellery demand outweigh a decline in automotive demand and slightly lower investment demand.
Alongside the 2018 forecast, today’s report shows a shift in the market balance for the full year 2017. Total platinum supply grew 1% in 2017, with the market ending 2017 in a 250 koz surplus. This revision is largely due to higher than expected supply from South Africa and a jump in recycling volumes in the fourth quarter of 2017. Global demand, meanwhile, fell 7% year-on-year, amid lower demand in all major market segments.
Automotive demand fell 3% in 2017, due primarily to falling demand in Western Europe. The market did, however, experience growth in commercial vehicles in China and the rest of the world.
Global jewellery demand slipped 2% to 2,460 koz as gains in other regions struggled to offset a decline in China.
Total investment demand was also lower in 2017 at 260 koz, due primarily to a decrease in Japanese bar buying. However, ETF investment rebounded strongly in 2017 after two years of declines, with global holdings rising by 95 koz. The largest increase took place in the US, where investors added 90 koz to their holdings last year.