This report incorporates analysis of platinum supply and demand during the first quarter and full year 2018.
Today’s report predicts that supply will tighten in 2018 compared to 2017, with South African mine supply falling in Q1 to its lowest level since 2016.
- Global demand for platinum is forecast to be marginally up for the year, despite a fall in total global automotive demand, with growth in commercial vehicles insufficient to offset lower demand from passenger cars.
- These fundamental shifts will contribute to a reduction in the level of overall surplus for the year, down to 180 koz from a revised surplus figure of 315 koz in 2017. Q1 2018 was in deficit by 125 koz.
- Key highlights from today’s report include a predicted recovery in both jewellery and industrial demand for 2018. Global demand for platinum jewellery is predicted to climb by 2% in 2018. This will be powered by strong global economic growth, alongside continued demand from India as larger retailers with multiple stores gain market share from the independent sector. Demand from China is predicted to increase as a platinum campaign to target millennials bears fruit.
- An increase in industrial demand (+60 koz) is expected to be fuelled by requirements from the petroleum industry, with use in refining up, led by the recovery in Japan.
- In line with previous forecasts, investment demand is predicted to be 250 koz in 2018. Demand in the first quarter of the year was buoyed by strong bar and coin sales, helped by the release of the US Mint’s bullion and proof platinum American Eagle coins.