The World Platinum Investment Council - WPIC® - today publishes its Platinum Quarterly for the second quarter of 2026 with an updated full year 2026 forecast.
In Q2’26, the platinum market recorded a surplus for the second successive quarter, at 244 koz. Total supply was broadly stable year-on-year at 1,906 koz (+1%), while total demand fell by 16% (-308 koz) year-on-year to 1,663 koz. Exchange traded fund (ETF) outflows of 234 koz, resulting in net disinvestment of 121 koz, were the single largest factor behind the quarterly surplus. Meanwhile, industrial demand growth of 6% year-on-year (+33 koz) to 600 koz could not offset weaker-than-expected jewellery demand, down 32% year-on-year (-215 koz) to 456 koz, and softer year-on-year automotive demand of 729 koz (-6%, -49 koz).
For full year 2026, a platinum market surplus of 265 koz is forecast as ETF outflows reverse, partially offsetting the 548 koz surplus in the first half of the year. Total supply is projected to increase 2% (+123 koz) year-on-year to 7,353 koz on the back of recycling growth. Total demand is forecast to fall 18% year-on-year (-1,582 koz) to 7,089 koz, principally due to significantly lower investment demand compared to the prior year.
The impact of the anticipated modest surplus in 2026 on above ground stocks (AGS) is mitigated by a prior-year adjustment, which has resulted in the estimated 2025 deficit deepening to 1,440 koz (+249 koz versus our previous estimate). In 2026, AGS are forecast to increase to 2,010 koz by year end, providing just over 3.4 months of global demand cover.
Recycling provides all of the 2% growth in total platinum supply forecast for 2026
In Q2’26, total mine supply fell 2% year-on-year (-26 koz) to 1,441 koz. Recycling grew 9% year-on-year to 466 koz (+37 koz), with stronger autocatalyst and industrial recycling more than offsetting a sharp decline in jewellery scrap.
In full year 2026, mine supply is expected to be broadly flat year-on-year at 5,551 koz as modest gains in South Africa are offset by declines elsewhere. Recycling is forecast to rise 8% year-on- year (+133 koz) to 1,802 koz, moderating over the second half of 2026 after a strong price- related start to the year.
Automotive demand resilient in face of headwinds caused by US-Iran conflict and weakness in China
Oil-price volatility and wider inflationary pressures associated with the US-Iran conflict have contributed to a lowering of expected light-duty vehicle (LDV) production which is now projected to decline by 1% year-on-year in 2026, with the contraction concentrated on catalysed vehicles. Consequently, the 2026 outlook for automotive demand for platinum has weakened, although trends are increasingly differentiated by region. China and, to a lesser extent, Europe account for much of the downside, while North America and India provide partial offsets through hybridisation, consumer preference for larger vehicles containing higher platinum loadings and stronger commercial-vehicle production.
As a result, global automotive platinum demand is forecast to fall by 4% year-on-year (-136 koz) to 2,904 koz, a relatively modest (-2%, -55 koz) downgrade on our previous forecast.
Higher precious metals prices and cost of living concerns continue to impact jewellery demand
In full year 2026, platinum jewellery demand is forecast to decline by 15% year-on-year to 1,883 koz. The contraction is concentrated in China, where the reversal of last year’s inventory build, weak consumer demand and a renewed trade preference for gold are expected to drive a sharp fall in fabrication. Japan and India are also forecast to weaken as higher platinum prices and softer underlying demand reduce consumption. By contrast, Europe and North America remain comparatively resilient, supported by bridal demand and platinum’s still-substantial discount to gold.
Forecast for industrial demand growth upgraded on AI-related glass and electrical applications
In full year 2026, a 5% (+119 koz) year-on-year increase in industrial demand to 2,385 koz is forecast, an uplift of 7% (+147 koz) from our previous forecast as AI applications boost both glass and electrical demand.
Year-on-year growth in glass demand (+23%,+98 koz); chemical demand (+9%,+50 koz); medical demand (+4%,+11 koz); electrical demand (+19%,+19 koz); and hydrogen demand (+8%,+6 koz) will more than offset lower petroleum demand (-28%,-50 koz). The latter is being negatively impacted by the ongoing disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while Russia’s refining sector is under pressure due to drone attacks by Ukraine.
Headwinds for precious metals markets affect platinum investment demand
The geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape hampered platinum and the broader precious metals complex in Q2’26, as investors saw prices decline amid expectations of a higher interest rate environment. This manifested itself in 234 koz of ETF liquidations and a significant year- on-year drop in bar and coin demand (-71%, -91 koz). Overall, the quarter saw net disinvestment of 121 koz.
The full year 2026 forecast is for net disinvestment of 83 koz. While ETF inflows are forecast for the second half of the year, these will only partially offset the substantive liquidations experienced during the first six months of 2026, resulting in a forecast net outflow from ETFs of 389 koz for the full year. Similarly, exchange stocks are expected to unwind by 112 koz in full year 2026, reflecting a partial reversal of last year’s sharp stock build as tariff fears recede. Meanwhile, platinum bar and coin investment is forecast to fall by 22% (-89 koz) to 313 koz in full year 2026, with some recovery expected in most markets.